30 abr. 2013

Statisticians say Venezuela's fraud probability is less than one in 25 quadrillion

Through an analysis of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, is shown that if were true the allegations by the Venezuelan opposition, it would be virtually impossible to have obtained the result that gave the audit of a 54 percent

 Photo: Referential.
Photo: Referential.
Through a statistical analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), shows that if were true the allegations of the Venezuelan opposition, on that the victory of President Nicolas Maduro was obtained by fraud, it would be virtually impossible to have obtained the result that gave the audit of a 54 percent of the voting machines that took place at the end of April 14's journey in Venezuela.

The chances of getting the result of the first audit, if the Venezuelan election was a fraud, would be less than one in 25 quadrillion. Furthermore, statistical analysis shows that the audit could not give a different result for the presidential election in the South American country.

Mark Weisbrot, CEPR's co-director, said that the U.S. government should know about these statistical studies, as it is still "difficult to explain why they are refusing to recognize the elected president, opposed to all the countries of Latin America and most of the world. "

"The results are actually pretty intuitive," said Weisbrot. "With this big a sample verified during the" hot audit "of April 14th, if there were indeed discrepancies between the total in machines and the counting of paper receipts, it would have been seen somewhere. But it was not. "

When it was closed the electoral process in Venezuela, a random sample of 54 percent of all machines (20.825 from a total of 39.303) was selected, and was made a manual contrast of ballots. This "hot audit" is made on the spot, in the presence of observers from both campaign commands, besides witnesses of the community. There were no reports of witnesses or election officials at the sites regarding discrepancies between the totals of machines and the manual counting.

After the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the results the night of April 14, the Venezuelan right wing sector demanded the making of a "recount" of all electoral ballots printed by the voting machines, and later asked for the manual counting of the remaining 46 percent of the sealed boxes containing election vouchers that have not yet been audited.

The results of the presidential elections on April 14 in Venezuela, gave Nicolas Maduro 7.575.506 votes, and to his competitor, Henrique Capriles Radonski, 7.302.641 votes. A difference of 272.865 votes, or a 1.8 percent of the total double of both candidates.

CEPR is an independent and nonpartisan research center, established to promote democratic debate on economic issues and social issues that affect people's daily life. CEPR's Advisory Board includes Economists and Nobel Prize winners Robert Solow and Joseph Stiglitz, Richard Freeman, professor of economics at Harvard University, and Janet Gornick, Professor at CUNY Graduate Center.

YVKE Mundial / RNV Web Press  
Lunes, 29 de Abril de 2013 10:01